The global climate crisis poses a number of threats to the well-being and prosperity of the people of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The country already witnesses several climate- and weather-related natural hazards due to its geographical diversity and a varied tropical, continental climate (hot summers and cold winters). Pakistan experiences recurring heatwaves and droughts, riverine and flash floods, landslides, and sea storms or cyclones. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events as well as exacerbate people’s vulnerabilities. It is projected that there will be significant increases in temperature across the country (high confidence) and especially in the snow-covered mountainous north, which will lead to faster glacial melt resulting in changes to the Indus River flows downstream.
Heatwaves are likely to become more frequent and intense all over Pakistan, and the number of ‘hot’ days and nights are expected to increase significantly (high confidence). Changes in rainfall trends are not clear, though there may be some shifting of seasons (peak summer rain shifting to August and peak winter rains shifting to March) (likely). Extremely wet days are likely to increase across all of the country except in Sindh Province, which will experience more dry days (leading to the increased frequency of drought) (likely).
Climate change has the potential to trigger wide-ranging and strong negative feedback loops between livelihoods and health.
Pakistan is a low-middle income country that remains predominantly agrarian, although it is progressively industrializing its economy and over one-third of the population now resides in towns and cities. The country relies heavily on its climatesensitive land, water and forest resources for livelihoods and food security. Agriculture remains an important source of employment for 42 per cent of the population. Almost 90 per cent of agriculture depends on irrigation from the glacier-fed River Indus and its tributaries. Climate change has hastened the pace of glacier melt, which will increase the incidence of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOF) and flash floods downstream. Faster glacier melt, higher temperatures, shifting seasons and erratic rainfall patterns are all altering the flow of the River Indus and this will increasingly affect agriculture-related activities, food production and livelihoods. Already, 39 per cent of the population experience multidimensional poverty, and the loss of livelihoods described in this report will have huge consequences on people’s wellbeing and ability to afford healthcare.
Pakistan is reported to have received more than 3 times its usual rainfall in August, making it the wettest August since 1961. The two southern provinces, Sindh and Balochistan, each experienced their wettest August ever recorded, receiving 7 and 8 times their usual monthly totals. The Indus river, that runs the length of the country, burst its banks across thousands of square kilometres, while the intense rainfall also led to urban flash floods, landslides.
The rains and resulting flooding affected over 33 million people, destroyed 1.7 million homes, and nearly 1500 people lost their lives (NDMA, 2022; VOA News, 2022). On August 25th, the government declared a national emergency. Damages likely exceed preliminary estimates of around US$30 billion with further economic disruption certain in the months to come (Business Standard, 2022), as around 6700 kilometres of road, 269 bridges and 1460 health facilities were destroyed (OCHA, 2022), 18590 schools damaged (Save the Children, 2022), approximately 750 thousand livestock were killed (NDMA, 2022) and around 18,000 square kilometres of cropland were ruined, including roughly 45% of the cotton crop – one of the nation’s key exports. The loss of food crops totalling around US$2.3 bn also compounds the ongoing food shortages due to the war in Ukraine and summer heatwaves in the region. There is also a severely heightened risk of the spread of disease, as stagnant flood waters provide a breeding ground for pathogens, and the vast number of people displaced results in poor hygiene and sanitation in temporary accommodation (Sarkar, 2022; Baqir et al., 2012). Notably, across Sindh and Balochistan, there has been an outbreak in waterborne disease such as diarrhoea and cholera, as well as skin and eye infections, and malaria (IRC, 2022).
To analyse whether and to what extent human-caused climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of this extreme rainfall, scientists from Pakistan, India, the Netherlands, France, Denmark, South Africa, New Zealand, the US and the UK used published, peer-reviewed methods to perform an event attribution study, focussing on two aspects of the event: (1) The annual maximum of the mean 60-day precipitation during June-September over the Indus river basin
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